US Q1 GDP (annusalised QoQ)...... -4.5% (risk: optimistic ?)
Year S&P lows: 700-720 ...... (currently at 825, that signals a drop of around 15%.
Reasons: P/E's during deep recessions can go to 11-12 range. Estimated earnings this year for S&P would be $ 60 (optimistic again). Hence a very optimistic low during the later part of the year for S& P is 720.
As for GDP, I think the pain will likely be spread out even with the previous quarter inventory. So my estimate is probably consensus right now and many people expect worse.
Yet to work out detailed year projections on GDP and unemployment.....and will do so soon for India as well.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment