Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Budget 2009 (?), more stimulus and state of the economy

Budget 2009 (or vote on account?) was a singular non event.....it read like the UPA govt's election manifestos and even there it was not properly articulated. The only noteworthy issue was the increase of the defence budget which I think was better spent elsewhere.....at this time of crisis social programs deserve more funding especially given the slowness in defence spending and little stimulus from it.

A few days after the budget we get a slightly better stimulus package reducing service tax and other duties. This will help in the next 6 months to limit the damage to exports and unemployment.

Finally, the 3Q Nos suggest a massive slowdown as expected in this column......I frankly dont see any pickup in the rest of the year as consumers cut back in urban areas contrary to expectations or even current wisdom.....with salary growth all but stalled and unemployment rising, consumer confidence is ebbing fast and while it may stabilize we should not expect a bounce any time soon...all in all a depressing post to match a gloomy world economy

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